CMC Markets专栏:澳币对纽币潜在筑底上行

澳币对纽币自去年4月份以来便出现潜在的筑底迹象，经历了近一年的震荡整理，2015年4月份最低近于平价1:1。15年8月份曾经上至最高1.14以上，后回撤进入调整期。目前看来，澳纽经过底部的长期整理后有潜在的筑底迹象，有望再次上探重要阻力位置1.14附近。但短期内有回撤的可能性，下方潜在支持位置看1.0946，然后是1.0846。

基本面：

新西兰央行自15年9月份以来实现两次降息，将OCR下调至2.25%。并且央行有未来再度下调利息率的强烈预期。澳联储自2015年6月份以来保持其利息率在2%的水平不变，大宗商品价格的触底反弹与澳洲就业数据的转好使得澳币较为坚挺。澳纽去年触及平价后投机交易员抄底操作使得澳币对纽币逐步反弹。

技术图形一：

时间周期：周线图
技术形态：上升旗形向上突破
使用技术指标：

• 趋势指标：保利加通道，10日均线，黄金分割线
• 随机震荡指标：Stoch随机震荡指标（14,3,3,0.8,0.2）,  MACD（10,25,5）

澳纽周线图形成向上旗形向上突破形态， 但目前在保利加通道上轨受阻下行，目前潜在支持位置在1.0946（10日均线），然后是1.0846（保利加通道中轨与38.2回荡线）。

技术指标中Stochastic随即震荡指标出现超买区域潜在想象交叉的“死亡交叉”潜在空头信号。

技术图形二：

时间周期：月线图
技术形态：头肩底
使用技术指标：

• 趋势指标：黄金分割线
• 随机震荡指标：Stoch随机震荡指标（14,3,3,0.8,0.2） , 相对强弱指数（10,0.7,0.3）

澳纽月线图明显有类似头肩底的潜在技术形态，并且有突破5个月横盘整理而上行的迹象，上方潜在的阻力位置在1.14附近的颈线部位，如果能够突破则上方潜在多头看1.1848（38.2%黄金分割）。下方潜在支持位置1.0870（23.6%黄金分割），1.0520。

技术指标（Stoch，）仍然显示涨势动能较强

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。