CMC Markets专栏: 欧元多空博弈 德拉吉出招

12月3日欧洲央行行长德拉吉将再次对其是否加大货币宽松力度进行证词发言。由于对其进一步宽松的强烈预期，市场绝大部分投资者自欧央行10月份会议后已经在接连做跌欧元。目前欧元对美元汇率于1.06附近运行，已距今年3月份低点仅150点不足。从期权市场的信号来看，70%的投资者还是倾向于欧元将再次跌落3月份低点1.0460左右。但同时也有对此持有相反意见的交易者认为德拉吉此次未必迎合绝大部分人的市场预期，不会在此次会议上决议将进一步扩大宽松。

情况只有两种：若12月3日的会议欧央行如期对其资产购买再度实行加大力度的宽松，则欧元很可能跌破3月底为继续向与美元平价的方向运行；反之，则欧元很可能在触及3月份低点后迅速回转反弹，多投跟进，空头平仓，则欧元会走出在一波强有力的涨势，有可能再次向1.08附近靠拢。

回顾欧央行行长德拉吉的会议内容既要，首先，在今年3月份欧洲行长德拉吉表示实行其国债购买的项目，欧元对美元在当月跌至12年低位达 1.0462。随后由于希腊问题周转转移了注意力，并随债务危机逐步缓解后出现较大幅度的反弹，最高触及1.15附近，但数月仍运行于1.15与1.08的区间；后9月份会议中，德拉吉一改鸽派强调，称欧央行暂不会自此实行降息，会观后市而定，导致欧元受短期支撑，直至德拉吉在10月份再次示意将有可能在12月份扩大欧央行的资产购买力度，并表示其将对于宽松的数量、组成及设计等全面再度进行改革。欧元对美元一夜之间大跌200余点，终于下破支撑位置而再无还击之力。而后美联储10月份非农业就业数据再给货币市场有力的一击，欧元再度破位下跌。

欧央行行长德拉吉的意图在于继续使用政策途径使欧元贬值以实现其通胀率的目标。但是是否12月3日的会议是绝对明确的表示全面扩大可能未然，近期的欧洲各国经济数据表现有复苏的乐观倾向，也许欧央行并不会在下周的会议作出绝对表态。

而美联储在12月份16日的议息议息会议也是需要密切关注的一个影响因素，可以说美联储本次实行自2006年以来第一加息比起欧央行的进一步宽松更具有可能性。这对于欧央行的口径可能会有重要的影。由于欧洲央行会议在美联储会议前，德拉吉可能在美国表态会仍然按兵不动，而使得欧元会小幅反弹，而后再做大动作。

技术图形上看，欧元/美元的近期底部支持仍可能在3月份低点附近1.0460， 而上方的潜在反弹目标在可能在1.08与1.10附近。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。