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CMC Markets专栏: 香港首次上调基准利率

2015-12-18 来源: CMC Markets专栏 评论0条

Author
CMC Markets, Tina Teng

今日,伴随美联储提高联邦基金利率0.25个百分点,香港金融管理局亦将其基准利率提高0.75个百分点至 1.25%,这是香港金融管理局自08年以来第一次上调基准利率。
 
基准利率的提高从根本上讲是为抑制经济过热,实行货币紧缩的一项举措,在当前情况下,可以说是货币政策逐步回归正规的步骤之一。今日在美联储加息以后,全球股市未因融资成本提高下跌而反成涨势,有可能是由于美联储示意“循序渐进”加息的鸽派言词所致。那么,香港恒生指数伴随全球股市今日的行情也可能先呈涨势。但香港基准利率的提高将直接影响到银行借贷成本的增加,有可能对房市起到抑制作用,加之国际大宗商品价格仍然低迷,中国经济呈现下行风险的情况下,在一定时期仍将对股市起到抑制作用。
 
技术形态上看,恒生指数近期潜在上行阻力可能在22800附近,如果能够突破此位置上行,则进一步的上方阻力位置将可能在24300附近。

CMC Markets专栏: 香港首次上调基准利率 - 1

周线图上可以看到自11月18日以来,香港恒生指数便运行在下降通道中,目前有望再次上探此下降通道的上轨位置22800附近,这里同时也是保利加通道中轨位置,如果能够成功上破并站稳此位置之上,则上方的进一步上行目标有可能在保利加通道上轨与黄金分割延展线100%左右的位置,这个位置在24300附近。

CMC Markets专栏: 香港首次上调基准利率 - 2

月线图中可以看出长期的上行趋势已经在8月份大幅下破,在当前经济形势下,股市难以再次回到长期涨势的趋势中,24000点的区间仍然是重要的阻力位置。

另外,恒生指数的走势与中国内陆经济形势大为相关,在中国经济宽松当局下,有可能对其有短期支持。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

Disclaimer NZ
Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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CMC Markets专栏: 香港首次上调基准利率 - 3

Author profile
Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务,负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法,认为金融市场是集历史,经济,政治,心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言;而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合,与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年,Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前,自2005年至2009年,她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职,负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章,造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。

关键词: 香港利率指数
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