CMC Markets专栏:股市下滑 市场偏向“避险”

华盛顿时间1月6日下午2点钟（北京时间1月7日凌晨时间3点钟），美国联邦市场公开委员会（FOMC）成员在华盛顿的会议上表示，由于原油价格继续破位下滑，加之强势美元使得进口商品的国内消费价格难以上涨，美国国内的通货膨胀率仍然可能在长期内保持2%的目标水平之下。会议成员对于经济现状不容乐观，强调加息需要“循序渐进”。投资者对会议的反应为市场风险预警加强，全球股市出现破位下滑迹象，同时黄金继续上行，避险货币-欧元、日元与美元均显示走强，原油等能源性大宗商品价格再度大幅跳水。

全球股市在FOMC会议后再度破位下跌，截至华盛顿时间6日下午3点钟15分，美国三大股指再度破位下跌，道琼斯指数跌破17000整数位置，跌幅1.82%至16850.08；美国标普指数500跌破整数关口2000点，跌幅1.79%达1980.87；美国纳斯达克指数100下跌1.55%至4815.32。纽约商品交易所美国得克萨斯2月份原油期货价格价格再度破位下滑5.7%，创新12年低位，截至北京时间凌晨4点钟，其价格达33.98美元/桶。同时，避险性投资产品黄金、欧元、日元出现走强迹象，黄金新年开始便开始起涨势，本周黄金现货价格上涨32美元至1094美元；欧元对美元昨日上涨40点至1.0787，美元/日元本周下跌达160余点至118.47，商品性货币纽币、澳币与加币继续呈下滑趋势。

昨日全球各大股指继续破位下滑

数据来源：布伦伯格

美国的克萨斯原油价格触及12年低位

数据来源：布伦伯格

在今日的FOMC会议中，由于现实的通胀率水平与现存的风险仍然是突出的问题所在，会议成员们对于提速或者放缓货币政策正常化的潜在需求进行着重的探讨，成员们均同意将谨慎对于通胀水平进行关注。基于对于现行经济活动，劳动力市场与通胀率的预测，成员们认为加息将循序渐进的进行，但也同时表示加息进程将以未来的经济数据而定。

2016年新年伊始全球市场便以暴跌开场，给投资者提出风险预警。先是沙特与伊朗外交关系的中断引发的中东局势的紧张；然后是由于投资者对中国经济增速放缓的担忧导致中国股市的大跌，进而引发的全球股市下滑；而昨日北朝鲜再次进行其核武器试验，是自2006年以来第四次核试验，对于金融市场今日的不稳定情绪再添担忧。今晨的美国FOMC成员在今日会议上的证词并没有给出美国对于经济前景的足够信心，导致投资者转向“避险”性交易。

美联储的加息举措虽然是货币政策回归正轨的必然之举，但在目前全球经济形势下，短期内并未能够给投资者带来信心，反之，由于中国等新兴市场的风险考虑，加息可能会使得市场出现短期大幅波动。加息一会加大各国债务风险，二会使得企业融资成本提高，同时也会对消费能力产生间接影响，无论哪种影响都有可能使得股市出现修正性的震荡。而近期中国人民币大幅贬值的影响下，中国的资本外流可能会导致中国股市有继续下行风险。“避险”有可能是投资者短期内寻求的良策之举。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。