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CMC Markets专栏:恒生指数下滑有如08危机

2016-01-12 来源: 今日澳洲App 评论0条

香港恒生指数在受中国股市直接的影响下出现再次的大幅急速下滑,目前已经破位20000点整数关口,有望向更低下探。很多资深投资人近期都闻到了真“熊”将到的味道,首先是亿万投资人索罗斯在上周四斯里兰卡的经济论坛中表示全球经济现状有类似08年金融危机的前兆,他说道:“我们正面临一场非常严肃的过度时刻…这种严重度将可能导致危机的到来,而目前正是危机的开端时刻”;摩根大通也7年以来首次表示,投行应该在全球股市反弹的任何时机进行做空。

目前的全球金融市场聚焦于中国人民币大幅贬值与股市大跌的现实,实际在15年8月份人民币一天之内对美元贬值1.9就已经显露迹象,当月全球股市大跌,恒指也出现历史性月度跌幅,但当时仍旧强受20000关口,很多人认为这只是市场的修正准备反弹。如今伴随美联储真正加息历程的开始与人民币的再度贬值,全球股市出现新年开端的急转直下,在中国股市急速下滑的情况下,恒指再无反击之力而破位下滑。

从香港恒生技术图表上看,形态确实与08经济危机有相似之处。再度延续长期上涨的趋势机会甚微。下放的潜在关键支持位置可能在19300附近,此位置至关重要,如果跌破则可能出现似08危机的下跌态势下探潜在目标15000附近。

CMC Markets专栏:恒生指数下滑有如08危机 - 1

从上方图形上看,8月份的大跌与08经济危机之前的形态有很大的相似之处,2015年5月份的峰顶迹象与2007年11月份的形态有相似之处,急转直下后,在2015年10月份出现较大程度的反弹,随后在11月份筑顶后再次下滑,这与2008年5月份注定下滑的形态很相似,两次的时间的间隔均为6个月。

目前下放的潜在进一步支持位置可能在19300附近,如果跌破则很可能出现再次急速下跌的情况,下放的潜在空头位置可能在15000整数位关口附近。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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CMC Markets专栏:恒生指数下滑有如08危机 - 2

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务,负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法,认为金融市场是集历史,经济,政治,心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言;而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合,与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年,Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前,自2005年至2009年,她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职,负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章,造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。

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