澳洲的山火，联合国18年前就预测过了

每次谈到气候变化总会吵翻天，所以本文只摘录IPCC的论文段落，不谈自己的观点，觉得IPCC在瞎扯淡的请找他们吵去。

IPCC是联合国1988年成立的评估气候变化科学的专门机构，有195个成员国，每年由数千个科学家审核评估全世界关于气候变化的论文后进行总结，作者团队囊括来自不同地区的发达和发展中国家的各类作者。

（图片来源：网络）

我是想不出有比这更权威的机构了，想得出来的欢迎列举。IPCC迄今已经发布了5次综合评估报告，分别为1990年、1995年、2001年、2007年、2014年，现在正在准备2022年的第6次报告。

报告包括了对现状的分析，也有对未来的预测。从第3次报告起，IPCC都会分地区出报告。

我特意打开了澳洲、新西兰的报告，每一次都高频率地提到了fire这个词，其中2001年提到45次，2007年提到46次，2014年提到114次（专门有章节讲到“气候变化和火灾”）。

2001年的报告提到：

Significant potential impacts identified on Australasian land-based ecosystems included alteration in soil characteristics, water and nutrient cycling, plant productivity, species interactions, and ecosystem composition and function, exacerbated by any increases in fire occurrence and insect outbreaks.

对澳大拉西亚陆地生态系统的重大潜在影响包括：土壤特征、水和养分循环、植物生产力、物种相互作用以及生态系统组成和功能的改变，而任何一次火灾和虫害暴发的增加都加剧了这些影响。

Major climatic hazards arise in Australia and New Zealand from tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, windstorm, snowstorm, wildfires, landslides, hail, lightning, heat waves, frost, and storm surges.

澳大利亚和新西兰发生的气候危害主要来自热带气旋、洪水、干旱、暴风雨、暴风雪、山火、山崩、冰雹、闪电、热浪、霜冻和风暴潮。

The incidence of wildfire in Australia is expected to increase with global warming (Beer and Williams, 1995; Pittock et al., 1999; Williams et al., 2001)

随着全球变暖，澳大利亚野火的发生率预计将增加。

Reduced rainfall in more recent scenarios would have adverse effects on productivity and increase fire risk.

最近几次降雨的减少将对生产率产生不利影响，并增加火灾风险。2007年的报告提到：

Heatwaves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency (high confidence).

（图片来源：网络）

实际上，热浪和火灾的强度和频率必定增加。（高度确信）

Risks include failure of floodplain protection and urban drainage/sewerage, increased storm and fire damage, and more heatwaves, causing more deaths and more blackouts (high confidence).

风险包括：洪泛区保护和城市排水/排污失灵，暴风雨和火灾破坏增加，热浪增多，造成更多的死亡和停电。（高度确信）

Production from agriculture and forestry is projected to decline by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire.

预计到2030年，澳大利亚南部和东部大部分地区以及新西兰东部部分地区的农业和林业生产将下降，原因是干旱和火灾加剧。

An increase in fire danger in Australia is likely to be associated with a reduced interval between fires, increased fire intensity, a decrease in fire extinguishments and faster fire spread (Tapper, 2000; Williams et al., 2001; Cary, 2002). In south-east Australia, the frequency of very high and extreme fire danger days is likely to rise 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050 (Hennessy et al., 2006).

在澳大利亚，火灾危险的增加可能与火灾间隔缩短、火灾强度增加、灭火手段的减少和火势蔓延的加快有关。在澳大利亚东南部，2020年极高和极端火灾危险日的频率可能会增加4-25％，到2050年会增加15-70％。

In both Australia and New Zealand, the fire season length is likely to be extended, with the window of opportunity for controlled burning shifting toward winter.

在澳大利亚和新西兰，火灾季可能会延长，预防焚烧的机会之窗将向冬季转移。

High concentrations of bushfire smoke play a role in increasing hospital presentations of asthma (Johnston et al., 2002), so projected increases in fire risk may lead to more asthma.

高浓度的林火烟雾会增加就医的哮喘病人，因此预计火灾风险的增加可能导致更多的哮喘病。

Some extreme events can trigger multiple and simultaneous impacts across systems, e.g., heatwaves leading to heat-related deaths, fires, smoke pollution, respiratory illness, blackouts, and buckling of railways.

某些极端事件可能会跨系统同时触发多种后果，例如热浪导致与高温相关的死亡、火灾、烟雾污染、呼吸系统疾病、停电和铁轨变形。

2014年的报告中提到：

Fire weather is projected to increase in most of southern Australia (high confidence) and many parts of New Zealand (medium confidence).

预计澳大利亚南部大部分地区（高度确信）和新西兰许多地区（中等可信）的火灾天气将增加。

The climate of the 21st century would be warmer (virtually certain), with changes in extreme events including more intense and frequent heat waves, fire, floods, storm surges, and droughts but less frequent frost and snow (high confidence).

（实际上可以肯定）21世纪的气候会变暖，随着极端事件的变化，包括更加激烈和频繁的热浪、火灾、洪水、风暴潮和干旱，但是频率较低的霜和雪（高度确信）。

Fire during hot, dry, and windy summers in southern Australia can cause loss of life and substantial property damage.

在澳大利亚南部炎热、干燥和多风的夏季，大火可能导致人员伤亡和重大财产损失。

Fire season length will be extended in many already high-risk areas (high confidence) and so reduce opportunities for controlled burning (Lucas et al., 2007).

在许多已经高风险的地区，火灾季将会延长（高度确信），因此预防焚烧的机会将会减少。

There is high confidence that increased fire incidence will increase risk in southern Australia to people, property, and infrastructure such as electricity transmission lines.

火灾多发将增加澳大利亚南部地区人员、财产和基础设施的风险，比如输电线路。如果你跳到这3篇报告的最后，会发现援引的文献来源数以万计，最早从1994年就有科学家预测澳洲山火愈演愈烈的趋势。略微列举一些跟澳洲山火有关的论文：

• Price, C. and D. Rind, 1994: The impact of 2xCO2 climate on lightning-caused fires. Journal of Climate, 7, 1484–1494.）

• Beer, T. and A. Williams, 1995: Estimating Australian forest fire danger under conditions of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations. Climatic Change, 29, 169–188

• Williams, A.J., D.J. Karoly, and N. Tapper, 2001: The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Climatic Change, (in press)

• Cary, G.J., 2002: Importance of a changing climate for fire regimes in Australia.

• Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent, R.A. Bradstock, J.E. Williams and A.M. Gill, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Melbourne, 26-49

• Hennessy, K., C. Lucas, N. Nicholls, J. Bathols, R. Suppiah and J. Ricketts, 2006: Climate Change Impacts on Fire-Weather in South-East Australia.

• Pearce, G., A.B. Mullan, M.J. Salinger, T.W. Opperman, D. Woods and J.R. Moore, 2005: Impact of climate variability and change on long-term fire danger.

• Cai, W., T. Cowan, and M. Raupach, 2009a: Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(19), L19710, doi:10.1029/2009GL039902

关于气候变化和澳洲火灾的论文还有很多，数不胜数，专家一直在观察，一直在研究，一直在论述，一直在发表。

20多年过去了，如果说依然有人号称这些都是“无法证实”的白左阴谋，

那么我只能告诉他们，直到现在还有很多人不相信地球是圆的，他们的理由就是“这无法证实”，而如果你把太空拍摄的地球照片给他们看呢？

没错，这都是某些政府的阴谋。所有否定科学的逻辑，都是类似的。